ArcGIS Desktop, ArcGIS Online, and ArcGIS Pro are set to renew on June 30th.
The renewal has already been processed and there should be no lengthy disruption of service. Unfortunately, we can not shut down the warning messages you receive until the ESRI servers are updated.
As soon as ESRI updates the servers on their side, the ArcGIS Online & ArcGIS Pro licenses will be valid until 2023 and the renewal notices will cease for those products. We will then work with our server team to update the ArcGIS Desktop server on our end so that ArcGIS Desktop is also valid until 2023 and it stops providing renewal notices as well.